Cover Edge logo Winter 2003 Cover Story: The Big Boom

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by Wendy A. Hoke
Who Are The Baby Boomers?

Baby boomers—those 76 million born between 1946 and 1964—differ from their parents in many ways. They are better educated than their parents, are more likely to own their home and are better situated for retirement. Female boomers are more likely to have their own incomes.

According to a November 2000 study by AmeriStat (research conducted by the Population Reference Bureau and the University of Michigan), one-third of men and women age 65 and older had not completed high school, compared with only one-fifth of men and women ages 55 to 64.

Older women are more apt to have college degrees than they were historically. In 1999, 11 percent of women ages 65 and older had a bachelor's degree or higher, compared with 19 percent of women ages 55 to 64. And since they are better educated they have a good prognosis for health and old age.

One big difference is that they are less likely to be currently married and have fewer children. "That has many ramifications," explains John Haaga, director of domestic programs for the PRB. Some older, single people experience alienation or estrangement from younger family members. More live by themselves and have tenuous connections with family.

"They are healthier and richer in education and wealth than previous generations, but not in the number of close kin," says Haaga. Women have most of the burden of caring for older people.

We've also seen an impact in the political process. Older Americans are more likely than younger Americans to vote. Candidates are spending more time discussing issues affecting older Americans (such as quality of life issues) versus childcare or education.

"Some people carry their political beliefs with them as they age, but some generations also have their own issues. There's no question that political discourse will be dominated by boomers for years to come," Haaga says. e
In the next 20 years, "one of the most powerful demographic forces in the United States in the last century" will drive the aging U.S. population, according to the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), a nonprofit non-advocacy provider of information on U.S. and international population trends and their implications.

Demographers estimate that by the year 2030, one in five Americans will be age 65 or older, which is nearly four times the proportion of elderly 100 years earlier in 1930.

"I'm a believer that this trend will impact our country more than most people realize," says John Haaga, director of domestic programs for the Population Reference Bureau (PRB). "The numbers are pretty profound. There's no conceivable level of immigration that could help to level out the age distribution. In the year 2030 you could move the entire working age population of Mexico to the United States and it would still not balance out the worker-retiree ratio," says Haaga.

Who comprises our nation's older population? Elderly Americans, defined as those age 65 or older, are among the wealthiest and the poorest in the United States. Some elderly are employed full-time; others require full-time care. Although their general health has improved, many elderly also suffer from poor health.

Those age 85 and older are the fastest-growing segment of the elderly population. Women outnumber men 3:2, causing them to live alone later in life. Women are more likely than older men to be poor, to enter nursing homes and to depend on people other than their spouses for care.

That's today's current older population. What about the cohort of baby boomers, the 76 million people born between 1946 and 1964?

Impact on social service systems

Our current social systems for older Americans are inadequate to deal with this population, according to many studying this issue.

"Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system. The money we put into that system does not go toward our retirement, but toward paying those who retire ahead of us," explains Haaga. Under the current system there are plenty more baby boomers paying into Social Security than there are retirees tapping its funds. But how will future generations of workers cover the costs of Social Security for retiring baby boomers? "We've yet to fund a sustainable plan for long-term care," says Haaga.

The elderly receive more public benefits than does any other age group. Although other federal and state programs are likely to be affected by population aging, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid—the federal government's three-largest programs—will be the most directly affected, according to the PRB's "Government Spending in an Older America," published in May 2002.
 

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